Global humanoid market size to top US$1 billion in 2024, CITIC Securities says

One of the biggest constraints is the high costs of core components like planetary roller screw, reducer and force sensor.

The size of the global humanoid robot market is forecast to reach US$1 billion in 2024, with more companies joining the game, CITIC Securities, a leading Chinese securities brokerage firm, said in a research note yesterday.

As products from manufacturers like Tesla’s Optimus become more mature, and are poised to reach mass production this year, CITIC analysts predicted that a larger number of firms will be lured to venture into humanoid robotics.

They can be legacy robotic companies bent on diversifying their product lines or tech or manufacturing titans looking to branch out into a new, promising field.

There is also a myriad of startups dedicated to humanoid robotics, CITIC said in the note.

A pivot to applications

Another prediction by the brokerage firm is that the market’s focus on humanoid robot will pivot from the product per se to its application scenarios.

According to CITIC, in 2024 the primary use cases of humanoids are expected to be in automaking and 3C, among other industrial scenarios.

As the industry is on the cusp of an explosive growth, several bottlenecks remain.

One of the biggest constraints is the high costs of core components like planetary roller screw, reducer and force sensor.

As costs steadily come down, CITIC analysts said they expected more domestic parts producers to enter the Tesla supply chain on the back of their price-performance ratio.

A game changer

Therefore, while humanoid robotics is still in its infancy, suppliers of parts like robotic sensor and joint actuator might be a game changer that will facilitate the arrival of a humanoid era in 2024, said CITIC.

Investors are thus advised to pay attention to stocks of core parts, sensor, material and equipment builders.

In addition to humanoid robotics, the Chinese market for industrial, service and specialized robots is projected to surpass US$20 billion in 2024, CITIC said, citing a study by International Federation of Robotics and Chinese Institute of Electronics.

Service and specialized robots are likely to represent more than half of the total, the brokerage firm added.

The domestic sales volume of industrial robots is expected to hit 300,000 units, with a corresponding market share of over 50%.

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Ni Tao

Ni Tao is the founder and editor-in-chief of cnrobopedia. Prior to cnrobopedia, he had a full decade of experience with a major state-run English-language newspaper as a tech reporter and opinion writer. He is also a communications specialist, having provided consultancy services to established firms like Siemens, Philips, ABinBev, Diageo, Trip.com Group (Nasdaq: TCOM, HK: 9961), Jianpu Technology (NYSE: JT) and a handful of domestic startups. A graduate of Fudan University, he writes widely about China's business and tech scenes and other topics for global publications including South China Morning Post, SupChina, The Diplomat, CGTN, Banking Technology, among others, and tries to impart his experience to students at Fudan University Journalism School, where he is a part-time lecturer. When he's not writing about robotics, you can expect him to be on his beloved Yanagisawa saxophones, trying to play some jazz riffs, often in vain and occasionally against the protests of an angry neighbor. Get in touch with him by dropping a line at nitao0927@gmail.com.

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