Global humanoid robot market is expected to grow at a maximum CAGR of 80% between 2021 and 2030 to 140 billion yuan (US$20.40 billion) by 2030, a leading Chinese securities brokerage firm estimated.
In a research note, Zheshang Securities said the penetration rate of humanoid robots will increase to 0.609% in 2030, meaning that of every 100,000 robots sold worldwide then, 609 will be humanoid robots.
Analysts with Zheshang Securities attributed the expected growth partly to ChatGPT, the powerful conversational AI chatbot technologies from OpenAI.
As the top-tier model in the AIGC realm, ChatGPT is forecast to revolutionize current productivity tools. Its commercialization could considerably accelerate the advances of conversational AI and AI in general.
As a result of ChatGPT-enabled human-machine interaction, there are reasons to be confident about the future of humanoid robotics, said the analysts.
This will generate more opportunities for suppliers of key robotic components.
Since humanoid robots require more reducers and motors than conventional industrial robots for enhanced flexibility, demand for core parts like reducers and servo systems is likely to surge, the analysts said.
What’s more, thanks to increased computing power, ChatGPT and ChatGPT-like applications can process a larger quantity of data, and this in turn will push up demand for optical modules and other related equipment.
Meanwhile, as ChatGPT is poised to open up API for developers, broadening its scope of commercial application, Zheshang Securities believes humanoid robots equipped with ChatGPT will be able to provide counsel to children suffering from loneliness or autism.
This is because humanoid robots, combined with methods of gamification, have a positive track record of improving the emotional well-being of autistic children and making them more sociable.
Humanoid robot also has a role to play in caring for the elderly, and integration with ChatGPT will lend force to human-machine interaction as well as improve the post-retirement life and rehabilitative care of senior citizens, said the analysts.
They also noted that the penetration of human-shaped robots will be comparable to that of EVs, whose sales spiked only over the past few years.
In a similar vein, the analysts reckoned that the expansion of humanoid robots is to key parts like RV and harmonic reducers what Tesla is to car components producers.
Specifically, driven by human-shaped robot, the market for RV, harmonic reducers and servo motors is likely to be valued at 12.2 billion yuan by 2030 in the best-case scenario, according to the research note.
Moderate and conservative forecasts put the market size at 9.3 billion and 8.5 billion yuan, respectively.
Typically, core parts account for around 70% of an industrial robot’s costs, and the percentage is only bound to be higher for humanoid robot for reasons mentioned earlier.
The analysts thus recommended Shuanghuan (双环传动, 002472), already an EV gear supplier to Tesla, which could start offering RV reducers to be used on Tesla’s Optimus.
Two other stocks possibly worth investors’ attention are Leaderdrive (绿的谐波, 688017), a domestic pioneer of harmonic reducer, and Estun (埃斯顿), a homegrown robot maker and developer of independent power transmission systems.
Other recommended stocks include Inovance (汇川科技, 300124), HCFA (禾川科技, 688320), Moon’s (鸣志电器, 603728), ZD Motor (中大力德, 002896) and Sanhua Group (三花智控, 002050), among others.